000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240248 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUN 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS ENTERED THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 91-92W THIS EVENING...AND EXTENDS S INTO THE EPAC ALONG ABOUT 91W. A BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EPAC ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH...BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE...BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 90W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EPAC BEHIND THE WAVE N OF 07N E OF 86.5W...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE N OF 04N E OF 90W. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W TO W-NW ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N75W TO 08N82W TO 11N96W TO 09N101W TO 13N115W TO 10.5N126W TO DISSIPATING LOW PRES NEAR 09N136W 1009 MB...WHERE IT TERMINATES. THE ITCZ THEN BEGINS FROM 08N137W TO BEYOND 07.5N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 07N E OF 86.5W...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE N OF 04N E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 113W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 131W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY TWO LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES. THE FIRST ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N132W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING N OF 12N W OF 125W. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED JUST W OF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N105W EXTENDING BETWEEN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND 116W. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 17.5N123W. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN SW INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC NEAR 08N94W AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THERE. WEAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS TO THE E OF THIS TROUGH AND HAS PROVIDED AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES IS MOVING SLOWLY NW THIS EVENING...WITH 1007 MB CENTER NEAR 20.5N110.5W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM ACROSS THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE COOLER PACIFIC WATERS TO THE NW APPEARS TO HAVE WRAPPED INTO THE SW AND S SIDES OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION...AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY W TO W-NW. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 35N133W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 24N117W. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS COVER THE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE N OF 16N W OF 112W. TO THE S OF THE RIDGING...SW MONSOONAL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO FRESH LEVELS BETWEEN 128W AND 135W AS INDICATED BY PARTIAL AFTERNOON ASCAT PASSES. A WEAK LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS NEARLY DISSIPATED ALONG 135W THIS EVENING. A SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS TO THE N OF THE TROUGH HERE TO PRODUCE A ZONE OF NE TO E WINDS 15-20 KT...BETWEEN 124W AND 135W WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 7-9 FT WITH S SWELL MIXING. THIS AREA OF WIND AND SEAS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WWD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND DIMINISH. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS CURRENTLY BLOWING N OF THE AREA ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ARE GENERATING SEAS ARE ALSO 8- 11 FT THAT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR NE WATERS WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND RAISE SEAS TO 8 FT N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W...AND 5-7 FT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. $$ STRIPLING