000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232215 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUN 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM CONTINUES S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED NEAR 20.5N110W...OR A 155 NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...MOVING NW AROUND 8 KT. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW INCREASED CONSIDERABLY EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH AROUND NOONTIME...BUT HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM OF THE N QUADRANT...AND SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM E SEMICIRCLE. A BAND OF 20-25 KT WINDS IS WRAPPED AROUND THE NE AND NW PORTIONS OF THE LOW...WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER...WHERE SEAS REMAIN 8-10 FT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY W TO W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THE PAST 36 HOURS HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND EXTENDS S INTO THE EPAC ALONG ABOUT 90W. A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EPAC ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH...BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE...BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 90W. FRESHENING NELY WINDS SPILLING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE KICKED OFF CLUSTERS AND LINES OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS TURNED HAS PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHIFTING SW OF 10N90W...MOVING SW AT 30-35 KT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED N OF 03N E OF 90W. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W TO W-NW ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W-NW AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MEXICO. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N75W TO 08.5N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11.5N100W 1010 MB TO 10N108W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 15N110W TO 11N124W TO DISSIPATING LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N135W 1009 MB...WHERE IT TERMINATES. THE ITCZ THEN BEGINS FROM 08N137W TO BEYOND 07.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 101W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150-180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 112W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S AND 60 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY TWO LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES. THE FIRST ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N132W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING N OF 12N W OF 121W.OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED JUST W OF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N106W EXTENDING BETWEEN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND 115W. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 17N122W. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN SW INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC NEAR 08N95W. WEAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS TO THE E OF THIS TROUGH AND HAS PROVIDED AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 34N133W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 23N115W. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS COVER THE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE N OF 15N W OF 112W. TO THE S OF THE RIDGING...SW MONSOONAL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO FRESH LEVELS BETWEEN 128W AND 135W AS INDICATED BY PARTIAL AFTERNOON ASCAT PASSES. A WEAK LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS NEARLY DISSIPATED ALONG 135W THIS AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS TO THE N OF THE TROUGH HERE TO PRODUCE A ZONE OF NE TO E WINDS 15-20 KT...BETWEEN 124W AND 135W WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 7-9 FT WITH S SWELL MIXING. THIS AREA OF WIND AND SEAS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WWD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND DIMINISH. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO 8-11 FT. THESE SEAS WILL MANAGE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TUE NIGHT REACH 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W BY THEN. $$ STRIPLING