000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUN 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A LOW PRES SYSTEM OF 1006 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 20N110W OR A FEW HUNDRED MILES NM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE LOW HAS DEEPENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AS IT MOVE NW AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACK IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS BEFORE IT SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO BAJA BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDING NW-N INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DURING THE MORNING...DEEP CONVECTION EXHIBITING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS OF THE NUMEROUS STRONG TYPE INTENSITY WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT. SEAS HAVE LIKELY INCREASED TO AROUND 10 FT WITHIN THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW WILL REMAIN UNDER A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION CHANCE DURING THIS TIME. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W N OF 11N TO INLAND EASTERN GUATEMALA...AND CONTINUES NNE TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N TO 11N. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS DEFINED AT THE SURFACE DURING THE 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 10N91W TO 15N100W...THEN RESUMES FROM THE 1006 MB LOW AT 20N110W TO 11N115W TO 11N129W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N134W TO 05N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 03N E OF 88W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 128W-133W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 135W-137W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY TWO LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES. THE FIRSR ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N131W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING N OF 12N W OF 121W...AND WITH ITS MEAN AXIS STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SSW TO THE ANTICYCLONE. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED JUST W OF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N108W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA TO THE N OF 09N AND E OF ABOUT 115W. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 17N120.5W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE AREA WITH A CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 28N144W. DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N108W AND THE CYCLONE NEAR 17N120.5W IS HELPING TO ENHANCE MONSOON TROUGH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BETWEEN 114W-120W. SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN IS ALSO OCCURRING TO THE SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N131W HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTION ACTIVE ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. VERY DEEP CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS N OF 03N E OF 88W...AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...IS JUST TO THE SSW OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS CONVECTION IS UNDERNEATH A FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N108W. THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BRUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NW MEXICO...AND HAS HELPED TO FIRE OFF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1006 MB LOW NEAR 20N110W. THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N131W WILL LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 17N102.5W TRACKS TO THE NW. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 34N133W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 24N119W. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS COVER THE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE N OF 15N W OF 112W. TO THE S OF THE RIDGING...SW MONSOONAL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO FRESH LEVELS BETWEEN 120W AND 125W AS CAPTURED BY A 0600 UTC ASCAT PASS. A WEAK AND BROAD LOW PRES AREA MAY BE TRYING TO FORM IN THIS AREA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE THEN MOVES GRADUALLY TO THE NEWD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRESH WINDS ARE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEAS TO 8 FT. A 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N134W AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE WITHIN 180-240 NM AROUND THE LOW. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE N AND THE LOW ITSELF IS TIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW TO WEAKEN WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO 8-11 FT. THESE SEAS WILL MANAGE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TUE NIGHT REACH 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W BY THEN. $$ AGUIRRE