000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230920 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19N109W OR A FEW HUNDRED NM S-SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE LOW HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND 10-15 KT TO THE NW OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO BAJA BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDING NW-N INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FIZZLED DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT A NEW CLUSTER HAS SINCE EVOLVED WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT DURING THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CLIPPED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND ONLY SHOWED 10-20 KT OF WIND WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 9 FT IN MIXED SE...S AND NW SWELL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER THE LOW STILL HAS A MEDIUM TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE MEXICO AND BELIZE SHORELINES ALONG THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL EL SALVADOR INTO THE E PACIFIC TO 11N89W MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY SIMPLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER INTERIOR ADJACENT LAND AREAS DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING PRIOR TO PROPAGATING OFFSHORE NEAR THE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS DEFINED AND HARDER TO TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 10N103W THEN RESUMES FROM 11N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N134W TO 05N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 06N E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 04N77W TO 04N82W TO 07N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 119W...AND ALSO WITHIN 90-150 NM S OF A LINE FROM 10N121W TO 07N126W TO 10N131W. ...DISCUSSION... 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS JUST NW-N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 35N134W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N130W WITH A TERMINUS NEAR 24N114W. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4- 7 FT SEAS COVER THE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE N OF 15N W OF 112W. TO THE S OF THE RIDGING...SW MONSOONAL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO FRESH LEVELS BETWEEN 120W AND 125W AS CAPTURED BY A 0600 UTC ASCAT PASS. A WEAK AND BROAD LOW PRES AREA MAY BE TRYING TO FORM IN THIS AREA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE THEN MOVES GRADUALLY TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRESH WINDS ARE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEAS TO 8 FT. AN 1010 MB LOW PRES AREA IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N134W AND IS DRIFTING W. A 0600 UTC ASCAT PASS WENT RIGHT OVER THE LOW AND SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITHIN 180-240 NM AROUND IT. SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE SWELL ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE N AND THE LOW ITSELF IS TIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW TO WEAKEN WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO 8-11 FT. THESE SEAS WILL MANAGE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TUE NIGHT REACH 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W BY THEN. $$ LEWITSKY