000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230246 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUN 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO APPEARS BETTER DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM SE QUADRANT...AND ALSO FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. THE LOW WAS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB NEAR 18N17.5W AT 0000 UTC...OR ABOUT 175 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND 10 KT. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT GRADUALLY N TO N-NW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS AND HIGHER IN TSTORMS OCCURRING WITHIN 150-180 NM ACROSS THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO NE PORTIONS WERE PRODUCING E TO SE WINDS AS FAR N AS 21N AND E OF 108W. SEAS TO 8 OR 10 FT ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE AREA AS S SWELL IS MIXING WITH THE SE WIND WAVES. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM CABO SAN LUCAS ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUGGEST THE FRESH SE WINDS HAVE SPREAD TO THE PENINSULA AND WILL RAISE SEAS TO 6-8 FT THERE DURING THE NEXT 12- 18 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO FROM MICHOACAN TO SOUTHERN SINALOA OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO E PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG 87-88W...AND IS ACTING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND PROPAGATE WWD. LOOK FOR THE S END OF THIS WAVE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WWD DURING THE NEXT DAYS OR SO AND TRIGGER ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND BEHIND THE WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVERNIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 10N84W TO 08N94W TO 10N104W WHERE IT HAS SEVERED FROM W PORTIONS. TROUGH THEN RESUMES FROM 11N110W TO 08.5N122W TO 11N133W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N133.5W TO 04.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 330 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM SE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 134W AND 139W. ...DISCUSSION... MODEST CHANGES OCCURRING IN HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA PAST 24 HOURS...WITH MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IS WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH ALONG 116-118W...WHERE EMBEDDED ELONGATED CYCLONE OF PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED NW AND BEGUN TO EVOLVE INTO MORE CIRCULAR CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 18N118W. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THIS CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT WWD TO 125W BY MON NIGHT WITH RIDGE TO THE E EXPANDING W AND SW. AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS NOW CENTERED ON 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 35N132W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N112W. A VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS YIELDING NW TO N WINDS 5 TO 15 KT N OF 24N WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN MAINLY NW SWELL. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A NEW PULSE OF S SWELL ARRIVING THIS EVENING BEGINS TO MERGE WITH A NEW PULSE OF MODEST NW SWELL GENERATING OFFSHORE OF N AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. S OF THIS RIDGE...A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 9N133.5W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH ON MONDAY. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE N IS PRODUCING A BROAD SWATH OF NELY WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITHIN 270 NM TO THE N AND NW...WHERE SEAS ARE TO 8 FT WITH S SWELL. LOOK FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY ABATE HERE ALSO AS THE LOW SHIFTS W- SW AND DISSIPATES THROUGH 24 HOURS. $$ STRIPLING