000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222209 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUN 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 08N87W TO 07.5N96W TO 09N104W WHERE IT HAS SEVERED FROM W PORTIONS. TROUGH THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR 20.5N108W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N107.5W TO 10N114W TO 09N122W TO 11N133W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N132.5W TO 05N137W....WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 270 NM S AND 150 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 210 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM SE OF TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 134W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... MODEST CHANGES OCCURRING IN HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA PAST 24 HOURS...WITH MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IS WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH ALONG 116-118W...WHERE EMBEDDED ELONGATED CYCLONE OF PAST FEW DAYS HAS SHIFTED NW AND BEGUN TO EVOLVE INTO MORE CIRCULAR CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 18N118W. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THIS CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT WWD TO 125W BY MON NIGHT WITH RIDGE TO THE E EXPANDING W AND SW. AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS NOW CENTERED ON 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 35N133.5W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N112W. VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA YIELDING NW TO N WINDS 5 TO 15 KT N OF 24N WITH SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN MAINLY NW SWELL. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A NEW PULSE OF S SWELL ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON BEGINS TO MERGE WITH A NEW PULSE OF MODEST NW SWELL GENERATING OFFSHORE OF N AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 110W THE PAST 2 DAYS HAS REFORMED TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR 16N107.5W AND WAS MOVING N-NE 10-12 KT. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT GRADUALLY N TO N-NW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WEAKEN. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS AND HIGHER IN TSTORMS OCCURRING WITHIN 150-180 NM ACROSS THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW...AND THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO NE PORTIONS PRODUCING E TO SE WINDS AS FAR N AS 21N AND E OF 108W. SEAS TO 8 OR 9 FT ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE AREA AS S SWELL IS MIXING WITH THE SE WIND WAVES. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM CABO SAN LUCAS ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUGGEST THE FRESH SE WINDS HAVE SPREAD TO THE PENINSULA AND WILL RAISE SEAS TO 6-7 FT THERE DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY 24 HOURS AS IT SHIFT N-NW TO NEAR 20N AND 110W...WITH WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE AREA GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 9N132.5W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH ON MONDAY. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE N IS PRODUCING A BROAD SWATH OF NELY WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITHIN 300 NM TO THE N AND NW...WHERE SEAS ARE TO 8 FT WITH S SWELL. LOOK FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY ABATE HERE ALSO AS THE LOW SHIFTS W-SW AND DISSIPATES THROUGH 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO E PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG 86-87W...AND IS ACTING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND PROPAGATE WWD. LOOK FOR THE S END OF THE WAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE 00Z SURFACE MAP HERE...WHILE ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT WWD ALONG AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH MON. $$ STRIPLING