000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SUN JUN 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...    

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N854W TO 9N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N109W TO 
9N120W TO 11N130W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N133W TO 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 84W-98W AND 
WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 105W-109W AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 
117W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 22N126W 
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 
5N W OF 120W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE WESTERN 
AND NORTHWESTER PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS E OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 17N116W. ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS 
CENTERED NEAR 19N102W WITH RIDGE SW OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO 
7N105W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 84W-98W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. MODERATE ELY WINDS AND 5-
7 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. LITTLE CHANGE 
IN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE CORRESPONDING MARINE 
CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N109W MOVING N 10-15 KT WITH 
SEAS 6-8 FT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM NE 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL HINDER 
ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY MON.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR  
9N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM 
SW OF THE LOW. WINDS 15-20 KT ARE WITHIN 150 NM NW QUADRANT OF 
THE LOW WITH 6-8 FT SEAS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT 
REACHES 9N135W MON AND MAY WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH THEREAFTER.
 
$$
DGS