000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220924 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUN 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 08N91W TO 12N108W TO 09N119W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N131W TO 08N135W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N135W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM SW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N113W THROUGH 17N116W TO 08N119W. A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER SW MEXICO NEAR 19N102W. 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRES IS UNDER THIS ENVIRONMENT NEAR 13N109W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE N TO NEAR 20N107W. THE LOW IS MOVING TO THE N AT AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 16N WITHIN 180 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOW WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ON THE WESTERN HALF. SEAS ARE 6-8 FT WHERE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL HINDER ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY MON AFTERNOON. A NEARLY STATIONARY AND EXPANSIVE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 21N129W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING THE ENTIRE WATERS W OF 119W. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THIS AREA... EXCEPT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WITH S-SW WINDS ALOFT PUMPING UP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ALONG THE ITCZ N-NE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N131W WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND 5-8 FT SEAS. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH PRES 1024 MB IS NW-N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N134W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 30N130W TO JUST NW OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRES AREA NEAR 20N113W. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. AN EXCEPTION IS JUST N OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N131W WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHT BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGING RESULTING IN A POCKET OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AS INDICATED BY A 0622 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC MIXED S-SW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS UP TO 8 FT IS EDGING UP AGAINST THE EQUATOR SW OF THE GALAPAGOS. THIS MIXED SWELL IS DECAYING AND WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE MON NIGHT. $$ LEWITSKY