000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220244
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SUN JUN 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...            

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS S 
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND INTO THE EPAC ALONG 82-83W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 84W AND 93W IS OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD 
OF THIS WAVE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WESTWARD 
OVERNIGHT. 

THE REMNANTS OF AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WERE MORE EVIDENT 
THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE HELPED TO MAINTAIN A BAND OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W 
AND 103.5W. THIS WAVE IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN FLANKS OF THE 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 12.5N110W...AND IS BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY 
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE 
LOW. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THIS WAVE 
WILL SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS AND AREA COASTAL WATERS OF 
MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO...LEADING TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS 
AND HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...    

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N74W TO 08N87W TO 15N106W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
12.5N110W TO 09N120W TO LOW PRES 09N133W TO 07N135W...WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND 05.5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 07N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 99W AND 103.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED FROM 13.5N TO 19N BETWEEN 104.5W AND 111W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF 
TROUGH FROM 119.5W TO 128W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN PERSISTS 
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH 
FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE TROPICS ALONG 118W 
HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT WWD AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF 120W ON MON 
WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING TO ITS E YIELDING STRONG AND HOSTILE NE 
TO E UPPER WINDS SPREADING THE TROPICS N OF 07 BETWEEN 90W AND 
108W.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH IS ESTIMATED NEAR 12.5N110W...OR ABOUT 480 NM S-SW OF 
MANZANILLO MEXICO. A STRONG AND VERY SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH TO THE W AND NW OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO INDUCE 
NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...WITH ONLY 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE LOW. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES ACROSS THE SURROUNDING 
AREA SUGGESTED CYCLONIC WINDS 15-25 KT OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THIS LOW...WHERE SEAS HAVE 
INCREASED TO 7-9 FT. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT N TO N-NW OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY. 

ELSEWHERE...A WEAKENING RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE 
AREA...CENTERED ON A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 35N134W...AND EXTENDS SE 
TO NEAR 19N11W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A 1010 MB 
LOW EMBEDDED ALONG THE W END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N133W  
IS PRODUCING A BROAD SWATH OF NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS 7-
9 FT WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NW OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
SHIFT W-SW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE GRADIENT AND 
ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY LESSENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT 
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 105W THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THIS AREA. 
 
$$
STRIPLING