000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212226
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SAT JUN 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED  
NEAR 12N110W...OR ABOUT 525 NM S-SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THE 
PRESENCE OF A VERY STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE W 
AND NW OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO INDUCE NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON 
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 60 
NM S QUADRANT OF LOW. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES ACROSS THE 
SURROUNDING AREA SUGGEST CYCLONIC WINDS 15-25 KT ARE OCCURRING 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THIS LOW...WHERE 
SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO 7-9 FT. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT N TO NW OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...            

THE REMNANTS OF AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE ARE MORE EVIDENT 
THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE HELPED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IN A BROAD LINE FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 
99.5W AND 103.5W...AND THE WAVE IS ASSUMED TO BE LOCATED ALONG 
101-102W. THIS FEATURE IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN FLANKS OF THE 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT 12N110W...AND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME 
ABSORBED WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE LOW DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SPREAD ADDITIONAL ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS AND AREA COASTAL WATERS OF 
MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...    

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N75W TO 08.5N87W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 12N110W TO LOW PRES 10.5N132.5W. ITCZ BEGINS FROM FROM 
07N135W TO BEYOND 05.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 09N BETWEEN 81W AND 91.5W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN PERSISTS 
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER 
TROUGH FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE TROPICS 
ALONG 118W IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT WWD AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W 
OF 120W WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING TO ITS E AND STRONG AND HOSTILE 
NE TO E UPPER WINDS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICS BETWEEN 
90W AND 110W.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAKENING RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS NW PORTIONS 
OF THE AREA...CENTERED ON A 1024N MB HIGH NEAR 36N134W...AND 
EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 19N019W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH 
AND A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED ALONG THE W END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
NEAR 10.5N132.5W IS PRODUCING A BROAD SWATH OF NE TO E WINDS 20-
25 KT AND SEAS 7-9 FT WITHIN 330 NM TO THE NW OF THE LOW. THIS 
LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W-SW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE 
GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY LESSENING. 
OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA W OF 
110W AND N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ABOUT THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 105W THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND AS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THIS 
AREA. 
 
$$
STRIPLING