000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SAT JUN 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED NEAR 11N111W...OR ABOUT 700 MILES S-SW 
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. AN ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 
TO THE NE TO 20N108W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE 
LOW CENTER. CYCLONIC 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM 
OVER THE SE QUADRANT WITH SEAS 6-8 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE NORTHWARD TO NEAR 14N108W SUN...AND TO NEAR 17N108W MON. 
THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...            

AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 12N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 5-
10 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE EXTENDING 
FROM 08N108W TO 17N100W WITH UPPER LEVEL NW-N FLOW ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS ADVECTING DRY UPPER AIR SOUTHWARD 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS 
FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN LESS DEFINED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...    

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N111W TO LOW PRES 
10N115W TO 11N125W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N132W. ITCZ FROM 5N132W TO 
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-16N 
BETWEEN 100W-112W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 22N123W 
WITH ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE 
AREA N OF 9N W OF 118W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALONG 
THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTER PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AN UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS E OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 
21N112W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM
4N-16N BETWEEN 100W-112W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
9N104W INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 16N W OF 116W. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS 
AND 5-7 FT SEAS DOMINATE THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE N OF 15N 
W OF 110W. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND 
THE CORRESPONDING MARINE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
11N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
N OF THE LOW. WINDS 15-20 KT ARE WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE LOW WITH 6-8 FT SEAS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT 
REACHES 08N135W BY 48 HOURS AND MAY WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH 
BY THEN.
  
$$ 
DGS