000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201548 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI JUN 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND E PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE STRETCHED NW TO SE FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE TROPICAL EPAC ALONG 92W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN LEFT BEHIND ALONG 94-95W FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 92W...AND IS BEING ANALYZED AS THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WWD AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE MASKED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT FOR WWD PROPAGATING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N76W TO 06N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N109W TO 12N123W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N129W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 11N128W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S AND 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 108W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S AND 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 129W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...THE PATTERN HAS AMPLIFIED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND HAS EVOLVED INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE- TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 110W CONTINUES TO DIG DEEP INTO THE TROPICS AND HELPING TO PRODUCE A STRONGLY SHEARED UPPER ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES NW OF THE AREA...AND EXTENDS A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 40N141W TO 18N108W. AN INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS ACTING TO REDUCE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ ACROSS W PORTIONS...REDUCING NE-E TRADES TO 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT S OF 13N AND W OF 136W. NE-E TRADES OF 10-15 KT WITH ISOLATED AREAS NEAR 20 KT AREA FOUND BETWEEN 20N AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 118W AND 132W...WHERE SEAS AREA GENERALLY 5-7 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. E OF THE RIDGE...NW-N WINDS AT 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT ARE FOUND E OF 122W TO THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS TO 6 FT WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL NOT VARY MUCH DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH MARINE CONDITIONS CHANGING LITTLE. BROAD 1008 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 11N109W EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM W QUADRANT...AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGESTED WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW WITH NEARBY SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 10N129W AND ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE WITHIN 180-210 NM IN THE N AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE LOW AS CAPTURED BY OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASSES...WHERE SEAS ARE 7- 9 FT. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND THE HIGHEST SEAS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE N AND THE LOW ITSELF TIGHTENS. THE LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT SW TO W AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS LONG PERIOD S-SW SWELL IS MIXING WITH WIND WAVES FROM THE SE AND NW TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT ACROSS THE FAR S CENTRAL WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S130W TO 07N122W TO 02N104W TO 3.4S98W. THIS AREA OF S SWELL AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TO 10-11N OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SUN. GAP WINDS... A 0254 UTC ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHICH WAS INITIALIZED WELL BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BLOW AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE NOON TIME BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8 FT BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. $$ STRIPLING