000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200919 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI JUN 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 12N94W THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO N OF THE AREA IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ITS VICINITY. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK AND MAY LOSE ALL REMAINING DEFINITION AT THE SURFACE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N108W TO 12N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N128W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N128W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 94W...WITHIN 300 NM SW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 105W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120-180 NM SW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 18N116W. NE-E TRADES AT 10- 15 KT WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE NOTED N OF 15N W OF 125W UNDER THE RIDGE. NW-N WINDS AT 10-15 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN MIXED N AND SE SWELL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED N-NE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS N OF 20N E OF 125W AND ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL NOT VARY MUCH DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH MARINE CONDITIONS HOLDING AT CURRENT LEVELS. A BROAD 1008 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 11N108W EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS PREVIOUSLY ACCOMPANYING THE LOW BUT HAS LOST ITS IDENTITY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGESTED WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW WITH NEARBY SEAS OF 5- 7 FT. THE LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 10N128W EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM IN THE N AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE LOW AS CAPTURED BY RECENT 0522 UTC ASCAT AND 0616 UTC ASCAT-B PASSES...ALONG WITH 8-9 FT SEAS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND THE HIGHEST SEAS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE N AND THE LOW ITSELF TIGHTENS. LONG PERIOD S-SW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-10 FT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FAR S CENTRAL WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S98W TO 00N105W TO 03N120W TO 00N125W. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT EVENING. GAP WINDS... A 0254 UTC ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHICH WAS INITIALIZED WELL BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCEMENT...DIMINISHING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RESULTANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 8 FT. $$ LEWITSKY