000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200246 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUN 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ILL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THE PAST 24-36 HOURS IS ANALYZED ALONG 92.5W TO THE N OF 12N AT 00Z...WHERE GLOBAL MODELS AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST TROUGHING IN THE LOW LEVELS. LONG TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TPW ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THIS WAVE IS LIKELY STRUNG OUT NW TO SE...FROM THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE EPAC NEAR 07N90W. SAL BEHIND THE WAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN AND COULD BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SE GULF AND POSSIBLY ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W HAS INTERACTED WITH THE WAVE SINCE ITS APPROACH...WITH MUCH OF THE WAVE NOW ON THE W AND SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE THAT APPEARS TO HAVE SEVERED OFF ACROSS COLOMBIA A FEW DAYS AGO CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE EPAC AND APPEARS TO BE FORCING A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CENTERED ON 06N89W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 09.5N88W...WHERE IT BREAKS... THEN RESUMES AGAIN AT 09N101W TO LOW PRES 10.5N108W TO LOW PRES 10N127.5W WHERE IT TERMINATES. ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N131W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 04.5N TO 07N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 270 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 123W...AND WITHIN 210 NM OF TROUGH FROM 101W TO 124W. ...DISCUSSION... A TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY ALONG 105W-107W HAS LOST IDENTITY AND TRANSITIONED TO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION... CENTERED NEAR 10.5N109W AND A WEAK 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD CIRCULATION...MAINLY WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE LOW. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGESTED WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SURROUNDING THE SURFACE LOW. THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W-NW THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WEAKEN MON AND BEGIN TO LIFT N. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 10N127.5W IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN 180 NM ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE S SEMICIRCLE. S TO SW 15-25 KT WINDS WERE DEPICTED BY AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-9 FT IN MIXED S SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW THROUGH SAT WITH THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS N PORTIONS TO PRODUCE NE WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...THEN SHIFT SW AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON SUN. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 36N138W TO NEAR 18N109W. NE TRADES AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 07-14N BETWEEN 131W-140W...AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WWD WITH THE LOW PRESENTLY ALONG 10N127.5W. NW-N WINDS AT 10-15 KT...SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN MIXED N SW SWELL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED N OF RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS FROM 28-32N FROM 122W TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. LONG PERIOD S SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE S OF 07N BETWEEN 107-128W. THE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE N TO COVERING THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 91-133W THROUGH SAT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. $$ STRIPLING