000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192220 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUN 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... AN ILL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THE PAST 24-36 HOURS IS ANALYZED ALONG 90W TO THE N OF 12N AT 18Z...BUT IS LIKELY STRUNG OUT NW TO SE...FROM THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE EPAC NEAR 06N88W. SAL BEHIND THE WAVE HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SE GULF AND POSSIBLY ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W HAS INTERACTED WITH THE WAVE SINCE ITS APPROACH...WITH MUCH OF THE WAVE NOW ON THE W AND SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE THAT APPEARS TO HAVE SEVERED OFF ACROSS COLOMBIA A FEW DAYS AGO CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE EPAC AND INITIATING A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CENTERED ON 06N87.5W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W-107W IS LOSING IDENTITY AS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP...CENTERED NEAR 10.5N109W. A WEAK 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BETWEEN 106W AND 114W WITHIN 180 NM N AND 270 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGEST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT SURROUNDING THE SURFACE LOW. THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W-NW THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN WEAKEN MON AND BEGIN TO LIFT N. LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ AT 10N126.5W BASED ON RECENT ASCAT PASSES AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 210 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE. S TO SW 15-25 KT WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN 270 NM ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT...WHERE SEAS ARE 7-9 FT IN MIXED S SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW THROUGH SAT WITH THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS N PORTIONS TO PRODUCE NE WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO LOW PRES 11N107W 1009 MB TO 10N119W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ FROM 10N120W TO LOW PRES 10N126.5W 1008 MB TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 330 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 103W...WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 06N89W TO 05N100W TO 07N122W TO 06N129W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE FROM 06N130W TO 06N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 35N140W TO NEAR 18N107W. NE TRADES AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 07-14N BETWEEN 130W-140W. NW-N WINDS AT 10- 15 KT...SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN MIXED N AND LONG PERIOD SW SWELL...ARE OBSERVED N OF RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS FROM 28-32N FROM 122W TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. LONG PERIOD S SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE S OF 05N BETWEEN 107-128W. THE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE N TO COVERING THE WATERS S OF 04N BETWEEN 96-131W ON FRI BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. $$ STRIPLING