000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191549 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUN 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 09N ALONG 87W AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 10 KT FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO A BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 13N91W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION S AND W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N91W TO 10N87.5W TO 10N85W. ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION HAS MATURED PER RECENT LIGHTNING DATA... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE WAVE AXIS PASSES W OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON FRI AND INTO AN AREA OF LESS FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CONTINUES AT 11N106W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED FROM 08N106W TO 18N104W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 10.5N104.5W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE SURFACE LOW TO A CREST AT 11N111W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN 60 NM OF 09N110W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST OF MEXICO FROM 92-105W...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING DETECTED ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 18N104W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 11N109W EARLY FRI AND NEAR 11N111W EARLY SAT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT THROUGH EARLY SAT. LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE ITCZ AT 08N127W AND IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A OF LINE FROM 11N125W TO 07N130W. CYCLONIC 15-20 KT WINDS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW TO NEAR 10N130W EARLY FRI AND NEAR 11N133W EARLY SAT. BY THEN THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUPPORTING NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT/SEAS 7-10 FT...WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N75W ACROSS THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE AT 11N106W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES W TO 10N120W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 04N140W. EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 07.5N79W... ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A OF LINE FROM 09N92W TO 12N99W...S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N89W TO 05N100W TO 07N122W TO 06N129W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N130W TO 06N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO NEAR 17N105W. NE TRADES AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 07-13N BETWEEN 130W-140W. NW-N WINDS AT 10- 15 KT...SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN MIXED N AND LONG PERIOD SE SWELL...ARE OBSERVED N OF RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS FROM 28-32N FROM 122W TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. LONG PERIOD N AND S SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE S OF 01N BETWEEN 110-125W. THE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE N TO COVERING THE WATERS S OF 03N BETWEEN 98-123W ON FRI BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. $$ NELSON