000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190900
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC THU JUN 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR EASTERN WATERS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 
COAST BETWEEN 87W AND 90W ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS LOCATED NEAR 105W HAS HELPED DEVELOP A 
SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10.5N105W. 
ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE IS DISCUSSED IN THE 
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W-NW 
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITHOUT MUCH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
10.5N105W TO 11N116W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION 
TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 11N120W TO 05N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N141W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 17N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS 
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION ALONG THE ITCZ 
IS CURRENTLY NEAR 125W WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY AS 
NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. THIS 
PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TODAY AND HELP DEVELOP A LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER IN THIS AREA. WINDS AROUND THE LOW WILL INCREASE 
TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AS IT SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. 

LONG PERIOD S TO SW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF NEAR 8 FT HAVE 
PROPAGATED JUST N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 111W AND 122W. COMBINED 
SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE NORTHWARD AND 
REACH AS FAR N AS 5N BY FRI NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE.
 
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MILD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS 
WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
 
$$ 
AL