000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190247 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU JUN 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS JUST BEGINNING TO EMERGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EPAC WATERS...AND EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA S-SE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. A SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE MAY HAVE SEVERED OFF ACROSS COLOMBIA FROM THE FASTER MOVING NORTHERN PORTION WITHIN THE PAST 24-36 HOURS...AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WWD SHIFTING CONVECTION DESCRIBED BELOW S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH NARROW LINES OF CONVECTION SEEN THIS EVENING RACING QUICKLY WWD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO...AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS N OF 12N DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 105-107W FROM 06N TO 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE N AND NE PORTIONS OF THIS WAVE HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER ENVIRONMENT IN THE AREA HAVE BECOME DRIER AND STABLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 240-270 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH FROM 98W TO 109W AND IS GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WAS SUGGESTED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N105W THIS AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE AND LOW WILL SHIFT W-NW DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BEFORE THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO BECOME ELONGATED NE TO SW AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE W OF 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 11N85W TO 09N93W TO 11N100W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 10.5N105W TO 10N113W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 10N121W TO 05N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240-270 NM S OF TROUGH FROM 98W TO 109W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 240 NM S OF TROUGH AND ITCZ FROM 110W TO 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 129W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD E TO W RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS... EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 36N139W TO NEAR 20N 112W. THE RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THE PRES GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM THE ITCZ TO 12N BETWEEN 124W-140W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATER TODAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 132W. A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION ALONG THE ITCZ IS CURRENTLY ALONG 122W-123W...AND IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH A LOW PRES CENTER FORMING ALONG THIS WAVE. N-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TO THE N OF THE LOW AS IT SHIFTS WWD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OF 11N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY MILD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. LONG PERIOD S TO SW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 107-131W THIS EVENING...AND WILL MOVE N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 110-130W LATE THU...WITH 8 FT SEAS REACH NEAR 08.5N ALONG 120W ON FRI BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. $$ STRIPLING