000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182214 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUN 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE FAR W CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO COSTA RICA...AND CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE...WHILE THE NORTH PORTION CONTINUES TO BE STRETCHED NW...WHERE STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC...REACHING NEAR 90W THU AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 104-105W FROM 06N TO 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUED TO OCCUR ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THIS WAVE FROM 11N TO 15N WITHIN 400 NM BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND WITHIN 330 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 108W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING W AROUND 10 KT THROUGH THU BEFORE A BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRES CENTER FORMS ALONG THE WAVE...AND MOVES NW AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W TO 11N83W TO 08N93W TO 11N105W TO 09N121W WHERE IT TERMINATES. THE ITCZ THEN BEGINS FROM 08N123W TO 04N136W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 95W TO 108W...AND WITHIN 310 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM 110W TO 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 123W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW OF CRISTINA HAS WEAKENED TO A LOW LEVEL TROUGH FROM 21N117.5W TO 23.5N116W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE. ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS...EXTENDING FROM A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 36N137W TO JUST NW OF THE REMNANTS OF CRISTINA NEAR 25N119W. THE RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THE PRES GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM THE ITCZ TO 12N BETWEEN 124W-140W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON THU WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 132W. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED ALONG THE BREAK BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ ALONG 122W. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME ON THU WITH N-NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT TO THE N OF 11N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. NW-N WINDS AT 10-15 KT...SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN LONG PERIOD N SWELL...ARE OBSERVED N OF RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS FROM 27-32N FROM 128W TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS... WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT...ARE INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 27-32N W OF 128W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH NE-E 10 KT WINDS EXPECTED IN THIS AREA BY SUNRISE THU. LONG PERIOD S TO SW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE S OF 02S BETWEEN 114- 129W LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 110-130W LATE THU...WITH 8 FT SEAS REACH NEAR 07.5N ALONG 120W ON FRI BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. $$ STRIPLING