000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181545
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC WED JUN 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 07N ALONG 83W. LIGHTNING  DATA 
VERIFIES A FEW TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE W COAST OF PANAMA AND 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SE COAST OF COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE MAY 
ENHANCE THE EASTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
TONIGHT. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS RELOCATED A LITTLE E OF THE 0600 UTC POSITION 
BASED ON STRONG CYCLONIC TURNING AT 10N103W. THE WAVE IS NOW 
ANALYZED FROM 05-17N BETWEEN 101-104W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
OVER MEXICO AT 19N102W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO TO A 
CREST AT 11N113W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION N OF 08N WITHIN 300 NM W AND WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE
WAVE AXIS.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 
11N75W ACROSS THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
COSTA RICA AT 09N84W TO 08N95W TO 09N110W TO 08N118W WHERE 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH 
CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 04N140W. 

EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WELL S OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE N OF 02N E OF 
80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION HAS MOVED SW OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N88W TO 
15N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ  
WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N112W TO 03N131W. 
  
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

THE REMNANT LOW OF CRISTINA HAS WEAKENED TO A LOW LEVEL TROUGH 
FROM 21.5N118W TO 25N116W. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED 
FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY TONIGHT.    

A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO NEAR 17N117W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 
KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL WATERS FROM 07-13N BETWEEN 130W-140W. THE GRADIENT WILL 
RELAX ON THU WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS W 
OF 132W. A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO THE N OF 
THE ITCZ FROM 09N120W TO 12N116W. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO 
STRENGTHEN SOME ON THU WITH N-NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT TO 
THE N OF 11N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. NW-N WINDS AT 10-
15 KT...SEAS OF 5-7 FT IN MIXED N AND LONG PERIOD SE SWELL...ARE 
OBSERVED N OF RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS FROM 27-32N 
FROM 128W TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LITTLE 
CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS... 
WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT...ARE INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 
27-32N W OF 128W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH NE-E 10 KT WINDS 
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA BY SUNRISE THU.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT WILL MOVE INTO 
THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE S OF 02S BETWEEN 110-120W LATER 
TODAY...AND CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 110-120W LATE THU...AND 
REACH ALONG 04N BETWEEN 100-120W ON FRI BEFORE BEGINNING TO 
SUBSIDE.  
 
$$ 
NELSON