000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180244
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC WED JUN 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INVOF 82-83W IS 
INTERACTING WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS 
NW...AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...WITH SCATTERED 
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING SW OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA 
AND INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS DESCRIBED BELOW. THIS 
WAVE WILL SHIFT W TO W-NW OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND ENTER 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA AND AREA WATERS N OF 10N. 

A TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 103W FROM 06-15N IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE 
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW AND ELONGATED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION EXTENDING BETWEEN 99W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W 
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE N AND NE PORTIONS OF THIS WAVE...WHILE 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF 
THE WAVE TO 108W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE CONVERGING ABOUT THE 
ITCZ. THE LOW TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE EPAC HAS 
RETURNED TO A GENERALLY EASTERLY REGIME SO EXPECT THIS WAVE TO 
PROPAGATE WESTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
 
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N73W TO 11N83W TO 09N89W TO 
11N102W...WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE IS FOUND...THEN TRANSITIONS TO 
ITCZ W OF THE WAVE...CONTINUING ON TO 09N115W TO 04N130W TO 
BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S AND 240 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
80W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 270 NM S AND 240 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 103W TO 131W. 
DIURNAL CONVECTION FROM COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS BEGUN TO 
SHIFT WESTWARD OFF THE COASTS AND INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL 
WATERS...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF COLOMBIA COAST FROM 04N TO 08N...AND 
IN CLUSTERS WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN 
COASTS BETWEEN 80W AND 101W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

AT UPPER LEVELS...PREVAILING WIND FLOW IS WEST TO SOUTHWEST 
GENERALLY N OF 20N...WHILE TROPICAL RIDGES DOMINATE S OF 20N AND 
W OF 90W.

THE REMNANT LOW OF CRISTINA CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 23N117.5W... 
AND IS DEPICTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES 
OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS ANALYZED AT 1011 MB AND IS FORECAST 
TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 
36 HOURS. 

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...CENTERED ON 
A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 38.5N145.5W...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE INTO 
THE DISCUSSION AREA TO JUST N OF THE REMNANTS OF CRISTINA. S OF 
THE RIDGE...THE MODEST PRES GRADIENT IS PRODUCING NE TRADES AT 
15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 17N WESTWARD 
OF 128W...AND S OF 13N BETWEEN 119W AND 128W. THE GRADIENT WILL 
RELAX ON WED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS W...WITH WINDS 
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. NW-N WINDS AT 15 KT...WITH SEAS OF 5-7 
FT IN MIXED N SWELL CONTINUE N OF RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL 
WATERS FROM 27-32N E OF 123W TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. 

S TO SW LONG PERIOD SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT HAVE 
MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE S OF 02S BETWEEN 112-130W 
THIS EVENING...AND WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-130W 
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING AS FAR 
N AS 05N.
 
$$ 
STRIPLING