000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172211
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC TUE JUN 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INVOF 83W IS INTERACTING 
WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NW...AND PRODUCING 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. ...WITH LITTLE WEATHER 
IMPACTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WAVE WILL SHIFT W TO W-
NW OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND ENTER THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND AREA WATERS N OF 10N. 

A TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 102W FROM 06-15N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW AND ELONGATED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION EXTENDING BETWEEN 98W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 
103W AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE N AND NE PORTIONS OF 
THIS WAVE. THE LOW TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS THE EPAC 
HAS RETURNED TO A GENERALLY EASTERLY REGIME SO EXPECT THIS WAVE 
TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
          
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 09N86W TO 11N98W....WHERE 
IT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 08N106W TO 
08N115W TO 04N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 105W 
TO 130W. 
  
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

AT UPPER LEVELS...PREVAILING WIND FLOW IS WEST TO SOUTHWEST 
GENERALLY N OF 20N...WHILE TROPICAL RIDGES DOMINATE S OF 20N AND 
W OF 90W.

THE REMNANT LOW OF CRISTINA CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 23N117.5W... 
AND IS DEPICTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BY BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 90 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS ANALYZED AT 1010 MB AND 
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...CENTERED ON 
A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 38.5N145.5W...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE INTO 
THE DISCUSSION AREA TO JUST N OF THE REMNANTS OF CRISTINA. S OF 
THE RIDGE...THE MODEST PRES GRADIENT IS PRODUCING NE TRADES AT 
15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 15N...AND W OF 
120W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 
10-15 KT. NW-N WINDS AT 15 KT...WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT IN MIXED N 
AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL...ARE OBSERVED N OF RIDGE ACROSS 
THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS FROM 27-32N E OF 123W TO THE NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT 2 DAYS. 

S TO SW LONG PERIOD SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT HAVE 
BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE S OF 02S BETWEEN 
112-130W THIS AFTERNOON...AND CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-130W 
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING AS 
FAR N AS 05N.
 
$$ 
STRIPLING