000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171546
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC TUE JUN 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 08N ALONG 76.5W AND WILL MOVE  
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA TODAY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS DISSIPATING WITHIN 60 NM OF 06N79W.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 07N-15N ALONG 87W. SCATTERED TO 
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW AND MID LAYERED CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED TO THE N 
OF 08N WITHIN 270 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS CLOUDINESS. THE CLOUDINESS 
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AND THIS WAVE MAY BE DROPPED FROM THE 
18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE WAVE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY NE-E 20-25 
KT WINDS THAT SURGED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO TO ALONG 89W. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO RELAX THROUGHOUT 
TODAY AND SUPPORT ONLY 10-15 KT BY THIS EVENING...THEN ANOTHER 
SURGE AT 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE ON 
WED.     

A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED FROM 07-17N ALONG 100W HAS BEEN MOVING
W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N96W TO 
12N104W...AND ALSO TO THE N OF 14N WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE WAVE AXIS. 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH...FORMALLY A TROPICAL WAVE...IS ANALYZED FROM 
10-16N ALONG 111W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
DISSIPATING WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 08N93W TO 09N106W 
WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH 
CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 04N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 
01-07N BETWEEN 78-83W...AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 
107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
OVER AND TO THE S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 180 NM OF 07N114W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
10N120W TO 07N127W...WITHIN 60 NM OF 03N122W AND WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N126W TO 08N130W.
  
...DISCUSSION...                                                 

THE REMNANT LOW OF CRISTINA CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 23N118W AND 
IS ANALYZED AT 1008 MB. THE LOW IS SURROUNDED BY OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER AND 
CYCLONIC WINDS 10-15 KT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N AND 
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  

A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 15N116W. NE TRADES AT 15-20 KT 
WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL 
WATERS FROM 08-14N BETWEEN 122W-140W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON 
WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. NW-N WINDS AT 15...SEAS 
OF 5-8 FT IN MIXED N AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL...ARE OBSERVED 
N OF RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS FROM 27-32N E OF 123W 
TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LITTLE CHANGE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. NE-E 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 
FT...WINDS ARE INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 27-32N W OF 
128W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH NE-E 10 KT WINDS EXPECTED 
IN THIS AREA BY SUNRISE THU.

SW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE 
SOUTHERN WATERS TO THE S OF 02S BETWEEN 110-120W LATE WED...AND 
CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 110-120W LATE THU. 
 
$$ 
NELSON