000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161503
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC MON JUN 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE IS DRIFTING WEST WITH AXIS OF THE WAVE NEAR 95W. 
THE INTERACTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS RESULTED 
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N95W. ACTIVE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM 
BETWEEN 95W AND 80W. THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT WESTWARD REACHING 100W THROUGH 48 HOURS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 05N83W TO 10N90W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 09N96W 1009 MB TO 10N110W TO 09N115W. THE ITCZ FROM 09N115W 
TO 06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 21N116W. 
EARLIER ASCAT AND ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES SUGGESTED THAT 20-
25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER 
OF THE REMNANT LOW...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WINDS 
AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 
20 KT AND 8 FT BY TONIGHT. 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1031 MB CENTERED WELL NW OF AREA NEAR 39N147W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 30N120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN  
THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY 
MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW. AN ASCAT SATELLITE 
PASS FROM 06 UTC INDICATED TRADE WIND FLOW TO 20 KT NEAR THE 
ITCZ W OF 130W. AREAS OF SEAS TO 8 FT PERSIST IN THIS AREA DUE 
IN PART TO RESIDUAL SE SWELL.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN