000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW CRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.5N 113.9W 
AT 15/2100 UTC MOVING WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 8 TO 10 FT 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE FINAL NHC ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC 
WATERS WITH AXIS NEAR 93W. 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF WAVE NEAR 11N92W. ACTIVE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 89W AND 94W. THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...WITH THE LOW 
GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER IN THE WEEK.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 06N82W TO 09N90W TO 
05N100W TO 08N108W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N118W TO 07N131W TO 
BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 83W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE FROM 
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 89W AND 94W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL NW OF AREA NEAR 39N148W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE SE TO AROUND 22N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY 
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER WESTERN FORECAST 
WATERS. AREAS OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SE SWELL 
TO SUPPORT SEAS TO 9 FT OVER AN AREA S OF 11N W OF 129W. SIMILAR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 

$$ 
MUNDELL