000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA...DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 
STATUS...IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 113.3W AT 15/1500 UTC MOVING WNW 
OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 8 TO 11 FT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. 
CRISTINA HAS LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND IS FORECAST TO 
BECOME A POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST 
NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC 
WATERS WITH AXIS NEAR 91W. NEWLY FORMED 1007 MB LOW PRES IS 
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N91W. ACTIVE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...WITH THE LOW 
PRES GRADUALLY WEAKENING. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 06N82W TO 09N90W TO 
07N100W TO 09N108W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO 
08N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
82W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 
12N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ 
AXIS W OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION WERE NOTED LATE YESTERDAY OVER 
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...THAT SUBSEQUENTLY PROPAGATED INTO THE 
ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. A MAIN CONTRIBUTOR FOR THIS 
ACTIVITY WAS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
GUATEMALA...BREAKING UP BROAD UPPER RIDGING FROM NORTHERN 
COLOMBIA TO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
MEXICO NEAR 17N100W. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER 
THE WATERS LAST NIGHT WERE FOCUSED ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
90W/91W. THE INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG WITH PULSES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 105W ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A WEAK 
SURFACE LOW OR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 105W...BUT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS 
IT MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK.

1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 39N149W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 24N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TO 
OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST WATERS. 
THE AREAS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SE SWELL TO SUPPORT 
COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE AREA S OF 10N W OF 120W. SIMILAR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN