000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 112.7W AT 15/0900 
UTC MOVING W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 45 KT. MAXIMUM SEAS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 12 FT. CRISTINA 
HAS LOST MOST ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION AND IS FORECAST TO 
BECOME A POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST 
NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC 
WATERS WITH AXIS NEAR 90W. ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS 
TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N92W TO 08N100W TO 
09N103W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N115W TO 08N133W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 
NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 94W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1033 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 39N147W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 24N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST WATERS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 

LATEST ASCAT PASS DEPICTS WINDS REACHING 30 KT DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO. THIS STRONG WIND FLOW APPEARS TO 
BE THE RESULT OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA ENHANCING GAP WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED TO THE 
TROPICAL WAVE. THE INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE INTERSECTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
AL