000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150235
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SUN JUN 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 112.3W AT 15/0300 
UTC MOVING WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 45 KT. MAXIMUM SEAS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 15 FT. CRISTINA 
HAS LOST MOST ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION AND RAPIDLY 
WEAKENING. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/ WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N89W TO 04N88W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 91W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N99W TO 12N104W. 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N118W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W... 
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO 
NEAR 24N122W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER WESTERN FORECAST WATERS. SIMILAR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGE LIKELY...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 

THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER W INTO EASTERN PACIFIC 
WATERS. THE INTERACTION WILL CREATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
FORMING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 102W 
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
WELL BELOW 20 KT...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHARP INCREASE IN 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE 
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W.

$$
MUNDELL