000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SAT JUN 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 111.8W AT 14/2100 
UTC MOVING NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 60 KT. MAXIMUM SEAS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 18 FT. CRISTINA HAS 
LOST MOST ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING. 
SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ 
WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N87W TO 05N86W MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 89W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N92W TO 05N99W TO 
10N105W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N112W TO 06N130W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO 
NEAR 24N122W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER WESTERN FORECAST WATERS. THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 

THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER W INTO EASTERN PACIFIC 
WATERS. THE INTERACTION WILL CREATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
FORMING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W 
DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
WELL BELOW 20 KT...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHARP INCREASE IN 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE 
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W.

$$
MUNDELL