000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
HURRICANE CRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 109.6W AT 13/1500 UTC 
MOVING NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB. MAX 
SEAS NEAR THE CENTER ARE IN EXCESS OF 30 FT. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE STORM CENTER. 
CRISTINA CONTINUES A WEAKENING TREND AND WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS 
IT CONTINUES WNW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN 
PANAMA THIS MORNING AND IS LIKELY ENHANCING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF PANAMA.THE TROPICAL 
WAVE MAY BECOME LESS DISTINCT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT 
INTERACTS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD LOW PRES CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS IN THE VICINITY THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N95W TO 
14N103W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 11N110W TO 08N125W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 08N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W 
AND 95W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
1032 HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL NNW OF THE AREA NEAR 42N143W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 25N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE 
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NE SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 8 FT 
PERSIST OVER THE WATERS FROM 20N TO 26N W OF 135W...BUT THIS WILL 
DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN WATERS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 
05N E OF 82W ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES FORMING IN THE FAR EASTERN 
NORTH PACIFIC AS A RESULT OF THE INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL 
WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN 
IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY 
THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W.  

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SE SWELL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER WATERS S OF 05N W OF 105W.  
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN