000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130247
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC FRI JUN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
HURRICANE CRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 108.3W AT 13/0300 UTC 
OR ABOUT 250 NM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING WNW OR 300 
DEGREES AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 130 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB. MAX SEAS NEAR THE 
CENTER ARE IN EXCESS OF 30 FT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM NW AND 90 NM SE OF THE CENTER. CRISTINA 
PEAKED IN INTENSITY ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO AND WEAKENING. CRISTINA 
WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES WNW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES 
ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS 07N81W TO 13N102W THEN CONTINUES FROM 
12N110W TO 09N118W. ITCZ FROM 09N118W TO 10N125W TO 07N130W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N123W TO 05N130W. EARLIER 
ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED 8-10 FT SEAS IN THIS AREA... 
EVIDENCE OF PERSISTENT NE SWELL. WAVE MODELS SHOW SEAS GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDING W OF 130W THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE RIDGE N OF THE ITCZ 
REMAINS WEAK. A MID-UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG 125W N 
OF 12N...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
123W AND 130W. 

WEAK TO MODERATE SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W AND 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF 
SHOWERS S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. A WEAK TROPICAL 
WAVE ALONG 80W IS MOVING INTO PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE SOUTHERN 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF 
COSTA RICA...INFLUENCED BY A DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N 
OF THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W.  

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SE SWELL WILL CONTINUE W OF 105W 
THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH SEAS TO 10 FT SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT LATE 
SAT.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL