000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC THU JUN 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
HURRICANE CRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 107.8W AT 12/2100 UTC 
OR ABOUT 250 NM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING WNW OR 295 
DEGREES AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 145 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB. MAX SEAS NEAR THE 
CENTER ARE IN EXCESS OF 30 FT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. CRISTINA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS 
MORNING TO REACH CAT-4 INTENSITY...AND IS STARTING TO WEAKEN. 
CRISTINA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES WNW DURING THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO 
ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N81W TO 12N100W THEN CONTINUES 
FROM 13N109W TO 09N115W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N115W TO 
08N125W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W 
AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N123W TO 05N129W. A RECENT 
ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED 8-10 FT SEAS IN THIS AREA... 
EVIDENCE OF PERSISTENT NE SWELL. WAVE MODELS SHOW SEAS GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDING W OF 130W THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE RIDGE N OF THE ITCZ 
REMAINS WEAK. A MID-UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG 125W N 
OF 12N...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
124W AND 130W. 

WEAK TO MODERATE SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W AND 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF 
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 
88W AND 100W. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN 
AND COLOMBIA MAY HAVE BRIEF LIFESPAN OVER PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE 
SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS 
SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
WEST OF COSTA RICA...INFLUENCED BY A DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH N OF THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W.  

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP 
NORTHWARD W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH  
SEAS 8-10 FT COVERING THE AREA S OF 05N W OF 100W.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL