000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121557 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUN 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE CRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 107.1W AT 12/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 230 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT. CRISTINA HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. SEA HEIGHTS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE ARE REACHING IN EXCESS OF 30 FT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM W OF CENTER. CRISTINA WILL REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH LATE TODAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH STARTING LATE TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES WNW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N90W TO 10N100W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N110W TO 08N120W TO 07N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 80W...WITHIN 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S AND 30 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS ANALYZED YESTERDAY ALONG ROUGHLY 125W N OF 20N HAS DISSIPATED. THIS HAS ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA COVERING THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 130W TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS. A RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM 12 UTC INDICATED 8 TO 10 FT SEAS OVER THIS AREA...EVIDENCE OF PERSISTENT NE SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS. WAVE MODELS SHOW THE SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDING W OF 140W THROUGH LATE FRI. THE RIDGE REMAINS WEAK AND NO SIGNIFICANT TRADE WIND FLOW OR RELATED SEAS ARE NOTED OR EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE ITCZ WEST OF 120W. A MID TO UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG 125W N OF 12N...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTMS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. FARTHER EAST...MODERATE SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG WITH ADDED ASSISTANCE FROM DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ARE SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 80W...BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...AND BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COLOMBIA...AND MAY EMERGE BRIEFLY OVER PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE SEEMS TO LOSE DEFINITION AS A DISTINCT FEATURE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WEST OF COSTA RICA. THIS INFLUENCED IN PART BY A DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE AREA REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A LIKELY INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 100W. CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP NORTHWARD W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT COVERING THE AREA S OF 05N W OF 95W. $$ CHRISTENSEN