000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111559
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC WED JUN 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
HURRICANE CRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 104.8W OR ABOUT 
220 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING W AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 989 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER IN THE N QUADRANT...BUT STAYING OFF THE 
COAST CURRENTLY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ALSO COVERS THE AREA WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER 
FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W. AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE 
FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT WERE REACHING 
THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO. A TURN TOWARD 
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS 
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N108W TO TO 07N125W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 07N125W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 
115W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 05 UTC ALONG WITH A SHIP 
OBSERVATION A FEW HOURS LATER INDICATED A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 
125W N OF 17N. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER 
TROUGH ALONG 130W. THE ASCAT SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOWS AREAS OF 
20 TO 25 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES N OF 
THE AREA. THESE WINDS ENCOMPASS THE AREA GENERALLY N OF 22N W OF 
130W. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES FROM THE PREVIOUS 
SEVERAL HOURS INDICATED SEAS TO 8 TO 12 FT IN THIS AREA AS 
WELL...LIKELY DUE IN PART TO NORTHERLY SWELL. FARTHER SOUTH NEAR 
THE ITCZ...ONLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW IS INDICATED IN ASCAT 
DATA AND TOGA-TAO BUOY REPORTS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOT DISCERNIBLE 
OFF THE NICARAGUAN COAST AS EARLIER NOTED. 

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH CROSS-EQUATORIAL 
SOUTHERLY FLOW W OF 120W CONVERGING INTO GENERALLY LIGHT 
SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 06N. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE NOTED IN THIS AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE...NAMELY FORM 06N TO 
10N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...AND 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP 
NORTHWARD W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS 
WILL BE 7 TO 10 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS S OF 04N THROUGH THU.
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN