000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC WED JUN 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AT 11/0900 
UTC. HURRICANE CRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 104.1W OR ABOUT 
230 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING W AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 990 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM 
OF CENTER IN N QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 
101W AND 105W. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT 
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES 
ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...                                           
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N85W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 
12N86W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG COAST 
FROM COSTA RICA TO EL SALVADOR. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N106W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 
10N109W TO 07N128W. ITCZ FROM 07N128W TO BEYOND 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF 
LINE 04N111W TO 10N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N 
T0 14N BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N111W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW 
IN AND AROUND HURRICANE CRISTINA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N109W AND 
BROAD DIVERGENCE SW OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM OF LINE 04N111W TO 10N106W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE 
UPPER RIDGE THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED 
AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION FAIRLY ACTIVE.

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS S-SE FROM A HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA 
TO NEAR 20N130W. GENERALLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE 
WINDS ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG N 
WINDS N OF 25N W OF 125W WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
TROUGHING W OF CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONGEST. SEAS TO 
12 FT ARE OCCURRING IN N CENTRAL WATERS. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS OVER N CENTRAL WATERS 
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT. NORTHERLY 
SWELL WILL BRING 8-10 FT SEAS TO NW PORTION OF FORECAST AREA 
THROUGH THU MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP 
NORTHWARD W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS 
WILL BE 7-10 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS S OF 04N THROUGH THU.
 
$$ 
PAW