000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110310
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC WED JUN 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 103.9W OR ABOUT 230 
NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING W AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
996 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE MOVING WEST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED 
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS 
FORECAST...AND CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES ISSUED 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N110W TO LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 08N113W TO 
07N130W. ITCZ FROM 07N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N113W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW 
IN AND AROUND TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 08N112W AND 
BROAD DIVERGENCE SW OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE WAS PRODUCING AN 
AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR 07N114W...BUT THIS HAS 
STARTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE PAST FOUR TO SIX HOURS. LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER RIDGE THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION 
FAIRLY ACTIVE.

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SSE FROM A HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA 
TO NEAR 20N130W. GENERALLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE 
WINDS ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG N 
WINDS N OF 25N W OF 125W WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
TROUGHING W OF CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONGEST. SEAS TO 
12 FT ARE OCCURRING IN N CENTRAL WATERS. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS OVER N CENTRAL WATERS 
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT. NORTHERLY 
SWELL WILL BRING 8-10 FT SEAS TO NW PORTION OF FORECAST AREA 
THROUGH THU MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP 
NORTHWARD W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS 
WILL BE 7-10 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS S OF 04N THROUGH THU.
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN