000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 103.2W OR ABOUT 300 
NM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MOVING W AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1001 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE MOVING WEST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED 
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS 
FORECAST...AND CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES ISSUED 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 11N90W TO 
12N97W...TERMINATING BEFORE REACHING CRISTINA. THE MONSOON 
TROUGH RESUMES WEST OF CRISTINA NEAR 12N109W THEN REACHES WEST 
TO 05N121W. ITCZ START NEAR 05N121W AND EXTENDS WEST TO 05N130W 
THEN TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 88W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W 
AND 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N113W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW 
IN AND AROUND TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 08N112W AND 
BROAD DIVERGENCE SW OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE WAS PRODUCING AN 
AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR 07N114W...BUT THIS HAS 
STARTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE PAST FOUR TO SIX HOURS. LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER RIDGE THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION 
FAIRLY ACTIVE.

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SSE FROM A HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA 
TO NEAR 20N130W. GENERALLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE 
WINDS ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG N 
WINDS N OF 25N W OF 125W WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
TROUGHING W OF CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONGEST. SEAS TO 
12 FT ARE OCCURRING IN N CENTRAL WATERS. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS OVER N CENTRAL WATERS 
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT. NORTHERLY 
SWELL WILL BRING 8-10 FT SEAS TO NW PORTION OF FORECAST AREA 
THROUGH THU MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP 
NORTHWARD W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS 
WILL BE 7-10 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS S OF 04N THROUGH THU.
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN/MUNDELL