000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 102.9W OR ABOUT 280 
NM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MOVING W AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1003 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 90 NM NW QUADRANT. CRISTINA IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING 
IS FORECAST...AND CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES ISSUED 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N92W TO 14N97W. THE 
TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 12N107W AND EXTENDS TO 07N122W. ITCZ AXIS 
EXISTS FROM 07N122W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N113W. DIFFLUENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW 
IN AND AROUND TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N112W AND 
BROAD DIFFLUENCE SW OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS PRODUCING AN 
AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR 07N114W. LITTLE CHANGE 
IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER RIDGE THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE 
CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION FAIRLY ACTIVE.

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SSE FROM A HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA 
TO NEAR 20N130W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE S OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS...WITH FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS N OF 25N W OF 125W 
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING W OF CALIFORNIA 
AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONGEST. SEAS TO 12 FT ARE OCCURRING IN N 
CENTRAL WATERS. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO 
STRONG N WINDS OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING 8-10 FT 
SEAS TO NW PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH THU MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP 
NORTHWARD W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS 
WILL BE 7-10 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS S OF 04N THROUGH THU.
 
$$ 
MUNDELL