000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100910
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC TUE JUN 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
                                           
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 102.4W OR ABOUT 
250 KM S-SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MOVING W AT 3 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED  
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W AND N OF 
17N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. A CONTINUED WESTERLY MOTION WITH AN 
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND CRISTINA COULD BECOME 
A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER 
TO ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 
KNHC. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 08N81W TO 10N86W. 
TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 1009 MB LOW NEAR 09N111W THEN TO 06N123W. 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N123W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 110W AND 
115W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 25N113W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS 
SOUTHEASTWARD...PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO 
CORRIENTES MEXICO TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHERE IT MOVES INLAND. 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ASSISTING IN 
LIFTING THE MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO 
SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SPANNING THE COASTAL REGION 
FROM THE GUATEMALA BORDER TO MAZATLAN. THIS MOISTURE IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION. 

VERTICAL LIFT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
THAT DOTS THE AREA NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATION IS EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR 
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS NEAR 
39N144W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N140W TO 20N130W. 
TRADE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE S OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE FOUND N OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS W OF 125W WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONGEST. SEAS TO 
12 FT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO 
STRONG N WINDS OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY...SHIFTING N-
NE WED AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS 
SOUTHWESTWARD. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING 8 FT SEAS AS FAR S AS 
19N BY EARLY THU.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 16-18 SECOND RANGE 
HAS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE MAINLAND COASTLINE TONIGHT. A NEW 
BATCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL HAS REACHED THE EQUATOR W OF THE 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LOOK FOR SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE 
OVER CENTRAL WATERS S OF 04N BY EARLY THU.  
 
$$ 
PAW