000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092154 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUN 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E. AT 2100 UTC THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR..15.4N 102.0W OR ABOUT 260 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT AND THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING W OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT. ..7 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS INDICATED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE CONVECTION WAS WRAPPING FURTHER AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE UPGRADED TOP A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 09N95W. TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 15N106W TO 08N125W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 08N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 22N117W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD...PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHERE IT MOVES INLAND. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ASSISTING IN LIFTING THE MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...WITH VALUES OVER 2.25 INCHES SPANNING THE COASTAL REGION FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO MANZANILLO. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. VERTICAL LIFT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE THE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM SW OF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATION IS EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 39N142W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N134W TO 20N120W. TRADE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE FOUND N OF THE RIDGE AXIS W OF 125W WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONG. SEAS TO 11 FT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH WED...SHIFTING N-NE WED AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD. NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING 8 FT SEAS AS FAR S AS 21N BY LATE WED. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-19 SECOND RANGE HAS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE MAINLAND COASTLINE THIS MORNING. A NEW BATCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL HAS REACHED THE EQUATOR W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LOOK FOR SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER CENTRAL WATERS S OF 01N THROUGH WED MORNING. $$ COBB