000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC MON JUN 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
                                           
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 16N102W IS CURRENTLY 
MOVING NW AT 5 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 240 NM E AND SE QUADRANTS OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
LOW...AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 06N89W THEN CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES 16N102W TO 10N120W TO 
09N128W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N128W TO 08N140W. 
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM NEAR 16N102W DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS E 
OF 85W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 88W.
   
...DISCUSSION...                                                 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 21N116W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS 
SOUTHEASTWARD...PARALLELING THE COAST FROM CABO CORRIENTES 
MEXICO TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WHERE IT MOVES INLAND. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ASSISTING IN 
LIFTING THE MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO 
SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...WITH VALUES OVER 2.25 
INCHES SPANNING THE COASTAL REGION FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO 
MANZANILLO. THIS MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. 

VERTICAL LIFT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE THE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FOUND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE 
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM SW OF THE COAST OF EL 
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. THE UPPER RIDGE 
LOCATION IS EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION 
IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 
40N142W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N134W TO 20N120W. 
TRADE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE S OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE FOUND N OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS W OF 125W WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONG. SEAS TO 10 
FT CAN BE FOUND OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N 
WINDS OVER N CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TUE...SHIFTING N-NE WED AS 
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD. 
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BRING 8 FT SEAS AS FAR S AS 21N BY WED 
MORNING.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-19 SECOND RANGE 
HAS BLANKETED MUCH OF THE MAINLAND COASTLINE THIS MORNING. A NEW 
BATCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL HAS REACHED THE EQUATOR W OF THE 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LOOK FOR SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE 
OVER CENTRAL WATERS S OF 01N THROUGH WED MORNING. 
 
$$ 
SCHAUER