000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC MON JUN 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
                                           
A BROAD ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BY A 1008 MB LOW 
NEAR 16N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 14N99W TO 17N103W. THE ENVIRONMENT 
APPEARS TO FAVOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES W-NW. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N89W THEN RESUMES 
FROM 13N102W TO 10N106W TO 10N125W TO 09N131W. ITCZ AXIS  
EXTENDS FROM 09N131W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 102W.  
   
...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A BROAD UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N112W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO NICARAGUA.  
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ASSISTING IN 
LIFTING THE MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO 
AS SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS MOISTURE COINCIDES 
WITH THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. 

VERTICAL LIFT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION FOUND BETWEEN 87W 
AND 102W. THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP 
CONVECTION IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 
39N142W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N137W TO 23N121W. 
TRADE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE W OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE FOUND JUST N OF THE 
AREA AND NE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WHERE THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS 
STRONG. NORTHERLY SWELL FROM THE PERSISTENT AREA OF WINDS 
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA HAS MAINTAINED SEAS TO 10 FT. LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT THE TROUGHING OVER 
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING...ALLOWING 
THE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS TO BLEED INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST 
WATERS THROUGH WED MORNING WHEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 
FT IN N SWELL.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-19 SECOND RANGE 
IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE MAINLAND COASTLINE FROM THE SOUTH PORTION 
OF BAJA NORTE SOUTHWARD TO ECUADOR. HOWEVER...SEAS ABOVE 8 FT 
WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR S WATERS W OF 90W.
 
$$ 
PAW