000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SUN JUN 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 
                                           
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SW MEXICAN COAST WAS 
ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 18N105W TO 15N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS LOCATED NEAR THE TROUGH OVER WATER FROM 
14N TO 18N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW. IT HAS 
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THAT TIME.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  
         
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 08N76W TO 10N90W TO 15N101W 
AND THEN CONTINUES FROM 22N112W TO 12N120W TO 09N130W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS IS LOCATED FROM 09N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 
83W AND 93W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N98W 
TO 14N98W TO 11N101W. 

...DISCUSSION...  
                                               
AN ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
POSITIONED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N133W. A TROUGH 
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CIRCULATION THROUGH 31N140W. THE 
CIRCULATION IS MOVING NE ABOUT 20 KNOTS. A BROAD AREA OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED N OF ABOUT 18N E OF 133W INTO 
WESTERN MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IN THIS AREA. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED FROM 
08N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT 
WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. MODERATE 
EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA S OF 10N TO THE EQUATOR E OF ABOUT 110W INTO 
COLOMBIA. 

IN THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 137W WINDS ARE NW TO N 20 
KNOTS WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN MIXED N AND S SWELL. AT THE 
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF ABOUT 115W.

$$ 
CAB