000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081534
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SUN JUN 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SW MEXICAN COAST WAS 
ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 18N104W TO 14N100W BASED ON ASCAT 
PASSES FROM 0344 UTC AND 0430 UTC AND CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NEAR THE TROUGH OVER 
WATER FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 95W AND 106W. THIS SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES 
NW. IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING 
THAT TIME.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 09N85W TO 12N96W THEN 
CONTINUES FROM 21N112W TO 10N123W TO 09N130W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS 
ANALYZED FROM 09N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 120 NM AND 360 NM S OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A VAST UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST 
INTO COSTA RICA AND PANAMA NEAR 09N80W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ASSISTING IN LIFTING THE 
MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SEEN IN 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...WITH VALUES OVER 2.25 INCHES 
SPANNING THE COASTAL REGION FROM THE EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA 
BORDER TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH 
THE SURFACE TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. 

VERTICAL LIFT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE THE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FOUND S OF THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO VARY 
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED 
AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 
39N143W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N135W TO 21N116W. 
TRADE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE W OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE FOUND JUST N OF THE 
AREA AND NE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONG. 
NORTHERLY SWELL FROM THE PERSISTENT AREA OF WIND OFFSHORE OF 
CALIFORNIA HAS BUILT SEAS TO 10 FT THIS MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE 
IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
HIGH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT THE TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA 
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MON MORNING...ALLOWING THE FRESH TO 
STRONG N WINDS TO BLEED INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS 
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING WHEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 
12-13 FT IN N SWELL.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE 
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO MUCH OF THE MAINLAND COASTLINE FROM 
BAJA SUR SOUTHWARD TO CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA AS WELL AS ON THE 
COAST OF ECUADOR AND SW COLOMBIA. THIS SW SWELL WILL BLANKET THE 
ENTIRE MAINLAND COASTAL REGION BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SEAS ABOVE 
8 FT WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR S WATERS W OF 85W.
 
$$ 
SCHAUER