000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SUN JUN 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS NOW ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 16N104W TO 13N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO RE-GENERATE TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM TO THE SW. THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER 
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME 
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
THERE IS NOW A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N79W THROUGH 1009 MB LOW NEAR 
10N88W TO 11N93W THEN RESUMES NEAR W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 
14N105W 11N119W TO 9N132W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N132W TO 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N 
OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 7N E OF 83W TO COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 101W AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH W TO 
NEAR 140W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM SE TO A SMALLER 
ANTICYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO THEN SOUTHEASTWARD 
TO COSTA RICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS 
IS ASSISTING IN LIFTING THE MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. VERTICAL 
LIFT OF/STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF N COLOMBIA. 
THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY 
OR SO...KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION 
IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 37N145W WITH 
THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 
32N136W TO 23N120W. TRADE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY A MODERATE BREEZE 
W OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE 
FOUND JUST N OF THE AREA AND NE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS 
RIDGE IS STRONG. NORTHERLY SWELL FROM THE PERSISTENT AREA OF 
WIND OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS TO 10 FT 
SUN NIGHT AND TO 12 FT BY MON NIGHT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN STRENGTH AND 
POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THE 
TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MON MORNING 
ALLOWING THE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS TO BLEED INTO THE NORTHERN 
FORECAST WATERS TUE AND WED. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 16-18 SECOND RANGE 
IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THIS SWELL REACHING MUCH OF THE COASTLINE FROM BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NORTE SOUTHWARD TO COLOMBIA BY SUN AFTERNOON.  

$$ 
PAW