000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080303 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUN 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N101W HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION BEGINNING TO TAKE ON BANDING- LIKE CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WAS SITUATED WITHIN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WHICH WAS DIFFLUENT W OF 100W. THIS FLOW WAS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THERE IS NOW A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N101W 1007 MB TO 11N110W TO 10N127W. ITCZ FROM 10N127W TO 05N140W. LOW PRES NEAR 13N101W...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM NE AND SW QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 120W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. ...DISCUSSION... A VAST UPPER ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING FROM JUST SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO A SMALLER ANTICYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO COLOMBIA NEAR 05N77W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ASSISTING IN LIFTING THE MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG AND WITHIN 150 NM INLAND OF THE COAST BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. VERTICAL LIFT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO ENHANCING THE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...INCLUDING OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA. THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 40N140W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N132W TO 25N115W. TRADE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY A MODERATE BREEZE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE FOUND JUST N OF THE AREA AND NE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONG. NORTHERLY SWELL FROM THE PERSISTENT AREA OF WIND OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD SEAS TO 10 FT SUN NIGHT...AND TO 12 FT BY MON NIGHT ALONG 30N. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT THE TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MON MORNING...ALLOWING THE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS TO BLEED INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND EXTENDS NW TO 15N115W. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL REACH MUCH OF THE COASTLINE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SOUTHWARD TO ECUADOR BY MIDDAY SUN...WITH SWELL PERIODS SHORTENING TO 16-17 SECONDS BY LATE MON. $$ COBB