000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SAT JUN 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
13N100W 1008 MB TO 11N102W TO 11N110W TO 10N128W. THE ITCZ WAS 
ANALYZED FROM 10N128W TO 06N140W. LOW PRES NEAR 13N100W HAD 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S QUADRANT 
AND SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N 
QUADRANT AND 210 NM W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS TO 04N E OF 83W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A VAST UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ALONG THE SW COAST OF 
MAINLAND MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 25N130W AND 
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO COLOMBIA NEAR 07N77W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AXIS IS ASSISTING IN 
LIFTING THE MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO 
SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM SW OF THE MEXICAN COAST 
BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. VERTICAL LIFT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
ALSO ENHANCING THE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ON THE E EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH DESCRIBED IN THE 
SECTION ABOVE....INCLUDING OVER MUCH OF PANAMA. THE UPPER 
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION 
IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS.

DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ALSO ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
13N100W. THE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS LOW IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. ASCAT PASSES 
FROM 1542 UTC AND 1636 UTC SHOW 20-30 KT WINDS LIE WITHIN 270 NM 
SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM S QUADRANT. 
THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 
39N143W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N132W TO 25N115W. 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS JUST N OF THE AREA AND NE OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER 
CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS MORE PRONOUNCED. NORTHERLY SWELL 
FROM THE PERSISTENT AREA OF WIND OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA WILL 
BUILD SEAS TO 11-12 FT BY SUN NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT THE TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE BY MON MORNING...ALLOWING THE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS 
TO SEEP INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE 
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL REACH MUCH OF THE MAINLAND COASTLINE 
FROM BAJA NORTE SOUTHWARD BY MIDDAY SUN. 

$$ 
SCHAUER/COBB