000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SAT JUN 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO 09N87W TO 13N94W 
TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N99W TO 09N120W TO 10N128W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N128W TO 06N140W. LOW PRES NEAR 
11N99W...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 
NM W QUADRANT AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT IN ADDITION 
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM NE 
QUADRANT AND 270 NM S QUADRANT.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A VAST UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO A SMALLER ANTICYCLONE JUST 
OFFSHORE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST 
INTO COLOMBIA NEAR 05N77W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
RIDGE AXIS IS ASSISTING IN LIFTING THE MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG 
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM SW 
OF THE COAST BETWEEN 95W AND 103W. VERTICAL LIFT OF LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS ALSO ENHANCING THE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 05N W OF 
81W...INCLUDING OVER MUCH OF PANAMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN 
COLOMBIA. THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CURRENTLY FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP 
CONVECTION IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS.

DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ALSO ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
11N99W. THE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS LOW IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. MICROWAVE 
IMAGERY FROM THE PAST 6 HOURS SHOWS A LARGE CURVED BAND 
EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS A 
LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT DRIFTS 
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 
40N140W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N132W TO 25N115W. 
TRADE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY A MODERATE BREEZE W OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS...WITH A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE FOUND JUST N OF THE AREA 
AND NE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THIS RIDGE IS STRONG. NORTHERLY 
SWELL FROM THE PERSISTENT AREA OF WIND OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA 
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 10-11 FT SUN NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT THE TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE BY MON MORNING...ALLOWING THE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS 
TO BLEED INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE 
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL REACH MUCH OF THE MAINLAND COASTLINE 
FROM BAJA NORTE SOUTHWARD BY MIDDAY SUN. 

$$ 
SCHAUER