000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC SAT JUN 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N78W 10N87W TO 13N97W THEN 
RESUMES NEAR 13N104W 10N113W TO 10N126W. ITCZ FROM 10N126W TO 
6N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 81W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA N OF 5N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF MONSOON TROF BETWEEN 81W AND 88W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH OF THE ITCZ REGION 
WEST OF 110W AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD MID TO UPPER 
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA AND ANCHORED NEAR 23N119W. THIS RIDGE 
WILL REMAIN IN VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR PROVIDING GENERAL 
STABILITY TO CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH TRADE WINDS 
REMAINING 20 KT OR LESS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST ACROSS THE NE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE 24 HOURS WITH 
ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT 
OCCURRING THROUGH EARLY TODAY OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UNRELATED NORTHERLY 
SWELL. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 
THE WATERS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 39N140W.

FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MID TO UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
MEXICO ANCHORED NEAR 16N102W AND IS EMBEDDED WITH DEEP MOISTURE. 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N101W TO 10N99W. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N98W TO 9N101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA FROM 9N TO COAST MEXICO BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. 
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT APPEAR 
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

FINALLY...CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE NE OVER 
THE FORECAST AREA WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-21 SECOND RANGE 
REACHING THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THIS MONRING AND MOST OF THE 
MAINLAND COASTLINE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO COLOMBIA BY LATE SUN. 
THIS SW SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS OVER THE S PORTION OF THE AREA 
TO 9 FT STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON.  

$$ 
PAW