000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC FRI JUN 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 08N83W TO 10N90W 
TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N100W TO 09N114W TO 11N124W TO 1009 
MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N128W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 1009 
MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N128W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS TO 03N E OF 80W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM SW 
AND W QUADRANTS OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 114W 
AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N128W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A VAST ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 22N120W EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN 
SOUTHEASTWARD TO A SMALLER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 15N99W THEN EASTWARD 
THROUGH GUATEMALA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE 
AXIS IS ASSISTING IN LIFTING THE MOIST AIR POOLED ALONG THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM SW 
OF THE COAST BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS ALSO 
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW 
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N100W. THIS CONVECTION IS 
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. THE MAIN ANTICYCLONE EXTENDS AN 
UPPER RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD TO 14N138W...JUST E OF AN UPPER TROUGH 
THAT ORIGINATES FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N143W THROUGH 11N140W 
TO 06N120W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE POOLED 
NEAR A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ 
AXIS NEAR 11N128W...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. CONVECTION NEAR THIS LOW IS 
DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO 
VARY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CURRENTLY 
FAVORED AREAS FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SAME GENERAL REGIONS.

A 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 41N139W. THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE 
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 32N134W TO 25N115W. TRADE WINDS ARE 
PRIMARILY A MODERATE BREEZE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH A FRESH 
NW BREEZE CURRENTLY FOUND BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COAST ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0515 
UTC. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIFTS 
SW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BE 
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS TO 25 KT N OF 28N ALONG THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COAST E OF 117W THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SAT 
MORNING BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THIS AREA. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS MOVING INTO THE SW CORNER OF THE 
AREA THIS MORNING...WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE. THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS SAT 
MORNING AND MUCH OF THE MAINLAND COASTLINE FROM BAJA NORTE 
SOUTHWARD BY MIDDAY SUN.

$$
SCHAUER